Aurora Energy Research says uncompensated PV curtailment will remain elevated in 2026 and 2027, reaching 3.05 TWh next year and 3.38 TWh in 2027, as grid constraints persist despite planned reinforcements.
From pv magazine Spain
Spain recorded a record level of uncompensated renewable energy curtailment in 2025, more than doubling volumes from the previous year.
July alone accounted for roughly one-third of the annual total, coinciding with peak solar production. Summer curtailment rates climbed as high as 11%, while about 892 GWh of renewable generation was restricted due solely to grid constraints.
System operations tightened following the April 2025 blackout. Grid operator Red Eléctrica strengthened security criteria and introduced enhanced operating modes, increasing reliance on technical constraints and ancillary services. Associated system costs rose 49% year on year to €3.77 billion ($4.4 million).
Aurora Energy Research has modeled Spanish curtailment trends over the next decade using a nodal load flow framework that captures localized grid constraints and zonal dispatch dynamics.
The analysis indicates uncompensated curtailment will remain structurally high at 3.05 TWh in 2026 and 3.38 TWh in 2027. Photovoltaics are expected to account for a significant share, with solar curtailment projected at around 2.5% of total national generation in 2026 and showing broad geographic dispersion.
Marked disparities emerge at nodal level. In Badajoz province, the most affected node could see discharge rates of 22.5%, compared with 3.55% at another node in the same area. Regionally, Badajoz is forecast to account for about 20% of near-term curtailment, followed by Zaragoza and Cáceres. Aurora notes that congestion patterns remain dynamic and will shift with grid upgrades, dispatch changes and new capacity additions.
Persistent annual curtailment of around 3 TWh through 2027 signals structural strain, with implications for market efficiency and the bankability of merchant and PPA-backed projects.
Relief is expected from 2028 onward, contingent on accelerated network expansion, storage deployment and rising electricity demand, including industrial electrification and renewable hydrogen production.
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