The Chinese customs data show a March surge as buyers rushed shipments ahead of April’s tax-rebate change.
China’s solar module exports surged sharply in March, with customs-based tracking pointing to one of the strongest monthly shipment increases in recent years.
According to data cited by Reuters from Chinese customs, solar panel exports reached a record high in March 2026, rising 125% month on month and 67% year on year in value terms to $3.61 billion. Reuters attributed the spike to a combination of factors, including the upcoming end of China’s PV export tax rebates on April 1, stronger demand from Southeast Asia and Africa, and temporarily lower silver prices that eased production costs.
InfoLink senior analyst Amy Fang told pv magazine that China exported about 37.32 GW of PV modules in March, up from 16.75 GW in February, an increase of roughly 123%, and up about 60% from 23.38 GW a year earlier. For the first quarter, she estimated total module exports at 71.42 GW, up around 15% from 61.89 GW in the same period of 2025.
Fang said the March figures “clearly reflect concentrated shipments ahead of the April policy switch,” with both modules and cells recording strong growth. She added that the regional distribution also shifted: Asia-Pacific imported about 13.82 GW in March, or 37% of total exports, overtaking Europe for the first time. Europe accounted for about 13.05 GW, or 35%, while the Americas and Africa each received roughly 4.4 GW. The Middle East trailed at about 1.62 GW.
Fang noted that the regional split suggests the March surge was not driven by a broad-based acceleration in end demand, but rather by front-loading ahead of the policy change. In her view, exports were supported primarily by Europe and Asia-Pacific, while Africa emerged as a notable incremental growth market. She added that attention is now shifting to whether second-quarter demand can absorb the early shipments, with focus moving from “rush exports” to pricing dynamics, cost pass-through, and inventory digestion.
This interpretation aligns with the broader market backdrop. China announced in January that it would eliminate VAT export rebates for PV products from April 1, 2026, a change widely expected to trigger front-loaded shipments in the first quarter.
A note of caution came from S&P Global analyst Jessica Jin, who said the March export surge was closely tied to the rebate removal and improved supplier margins from lower silver prices, but warned that export volumes do not necessarily reflect final downstream demand.
She added that some shipments may have been directed to overseas manufacturing bases or transit hubs rather than immediate end markets.
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