Solar power is set to achieve a major milestone in Texas, as electricity generation from utility-scale solar projects is expected to exceed coal-fired generation for the first time in 2026 within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, solar generation is projected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh) in 2026, while coal generation is expected to remain at around 60 BkWh.

The rapid growth of solar energy in Texas has been driven by significant additions of utility-scale solar capacity to meet the state’s increasing electricity demand. While natural gas continues to be the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average of 44 percent of the power mix between 2021 and 2025, solar energy has steadily increased its contribution. During the same period, solar’s share of electricity generation rose from 4 percent to 12 percent, whereas coal’s share declined from 19 percent to 13 percent.

Texas is expected to play a leading role in the expansion of solar energy across the United States. Around 40 percent of all new solar capacity additions in the country during 2026 are forecast to be installed in Texas. Several large-scale projects are expected to contribute to this growth, including the Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) project. With a planned capacity of 837 megawatts (MW), it is expected to be one of the largest solar photovoltaic projects to become operational during the year.

The transition toward renewable energy is also being supported by a lack of new coal development. Current reports indicate that there are no planned new coal-fired power plants within the ERCOT region, highlighting the changing direction of the state’s power sector.

Solar power has already begun outperforming coal on a monthly basis. In March 2025, solar generation reached 4.33 BkWh, surpassing coal generation of 4.16 BkWh for the first time. Solar continued to generate more electricity than coal through August 2025. Looking ahead, forecasts suggest that solar generation will exceed coal generation from March through November in 2026, with coal only regaining a slight advantage during December. By 2027, solar is expected to outperform coal in every month except January and December.

The outlook for 2027 remains even stronger, with annual solar generation projected to rise to 99 BkWh compared to 66 BkWh from coal. Additional solar capacity is expected to come online during the year, further strengthening renewable energy’s role in the grid. Rising electricity demand from data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, industrial activities, and oil and gas processing facilities is expected to continue driving the need for new power generation resources across Texas.

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