From pv magazine India
More than 35 GW of renewable energy capacity in India could face grid curtailment risk in fiscal 2027 due to limited long-term transmission access, Crisil Ratings said in a newly released report. The risk stems from rapid capacity additions outpacing transmission infrastructure deployment.
Curtailment over extended periods can reduce project returns, affecting debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) and equity internal rates of return (IRR). Sponsor support and liquidity buffers will be critical to maintaining debt servicing in the early stages of projects.
Solar-led capacity additions are increasing surplus daytime generation, raising evacuation constraints. Projects operating under temporary general network access (TGNA) accounted for 80% of total curtailment between April and December 2025 and saw 39% of capacity curtailed from November 2025 to February 2026.
Curtailment is most pronounced in Rajasthan and Gujarat, which together account for 45% of India’s renewables capacity. In these states, 13 GW to 14 GW of TGNA capacity faced curtailment of up to 50% due to mismatches between generation and transmission availability.
Projects with long-term general network access (LT GNA) benefit from dedicated transmission infrastructure, multi-year access, and priority scheduling, while TGNA projects typically lack firm connectivity and face higher curtailment risk.
Crisil estimates that 20 GW of new renewables capacity will be commissioned in the inter-state transmission system (ISTS) under TGNA in fiscal 2027. Combined with 17 GW of existing TGNA capacity as of February 2026, total capacity exposed to curtailment risk could reach 35 GW to 37 GW.
High curtailment levels can materially affect project performance. A 50% curtailment sustained over 12 months could reduce DSCR by up to 10 basis points and equity IRR by up to 150 basis points.
Crisil Ratings said three factors could limit near-term credit impact: TGNA exposure is concentrated in recently commissioned projects with limited repayment obligations, sponsor support remains strong, and liquidity buffers such as debt service reserve accounts help manage short-term risks.
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