Following the Sept. 22 anti-stockpiling rule announcement, enforcement began almost immediately with the US Department of Commerce (DOC) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) blocking more than 20 importers from entering covered products. The pace has continued. By mid-October, our checks indicated that every week roughly a dozen importers were being blocked, or 30 to 50 in total.

This approach is stricter than traditional CBP enforcement. Instead of relying mainly on physical inspections, the DOC tracks covered products by tariff code and importer of record (IOR). When it sees volumes rise substantially, it can stop imports, and the importer then has to appeal to be reinstated. To avoid detection, an importer would have to do something clearly illegal, such as declaring a different tariff code. Licensed customs brokers have little reason to go along with stockpiling, because a broker that facilitates this can have its license reviewed.

The DOC is also going after ways to get around the minimum import price (MIP), and is developing new rules to make sure the arm’s-length first-sale rule works as intended. The concern is structures in which an entity buys at the MIP and then resells below it. Companies that knowingly route a sale through an affiliated entity this way would be treated as violating the proclamation, and the DOC is building tools to see who is selling below the MIP. Commerce also recognizes the risk of circumvention after importation, including bundling and post-sale rebates. We continue to expect aggressive enforcement.

The next catalyst for US manufacturers is the tariff rebate/onshoring program, which is expected shortly. For greenfield projects, applicants may need to show that permitting is well advanced and that construction can start within weeks. Approved plans may also be subject to semiannual third-party audits. How relief is structured matters. Dollar-for-dollar relief, rather than volume-based relief, would be more favorable for US manufacturers.

Module prices

Post-Section 232 crystalline silicon module quotes range from the high $0.30s to the low $0.50s per watt, and the main driver is the source of upstream components. Fully imported modules are in the high-30s, modules with imported cells are at $0.42/W to $0.43/W, and modules with imported wafers are at $0.50/W to $0.53/W. Manufacturers that own more of their upstream supply chain have more control over input costs and may be able to price more competitively.

Domestic thin-film pricing has risen roughly 5% to 10% since 232, and more developers that have not historically used thin film are now considering it. Module price is only part of the comparison. Because of lower efficiency, thin film carries a system-cost penalty of about $0.03/W to $0.07/W compared with crystalline silicon, depending on the site and the developer’s experience with the product. We expect price discovery to continue through the first half of 2027.

Tight credit window

Most of our contacts in Washington, DC, put the chance of an ITC extension at 50% to 60%, although views range widely. The skeptics’ main point is that nothing is certain until it is clear what a deal would look like. If Congress is split after November, the chance of extending the ITC and 45X is strong, potentially closer to 80%. An extension would likely be attached to a larger must-pass bill, such as a surface transportation bill, FAA reauthorization, or the National Defense ­Authorization Act, which currently looks the most likely.

Timing is the constraint. One view puts the practical window at January through August 2027, and another runs it through March 2028. Bringing back the 25D residential credit looks harder and may require Democrats to control the House, Senate and presidency.

Pressure on 2028-29

Developers say hyperscaler demand for PPAs has cooled, and some buyers are pushing harder on price and terms. For projects still waiting on offtake, timing matters. One tier-1 independent power producer (IPP) said projects that cannot sign PPAs in the next two months may slip by a year.

Interest rates add to the pressure. Most projects already under construction are hedged, so 2027 should be largely protected. The 2028 pipeline is not hedged, and some bids already in the market no longer work. Recent rate moves would have cut unhedged returns by at least 100 basis points, and the market may need six to 12 months to absorb them.

This is showing up in procurement. One gigawatt-scale IPP has signed only about 50% of the tracker and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts it would normally have in place for 2028 by this point, and about 25% for 2029. The IPP said close to half of its peers may be in a similar position, which suggests tracker and EPC bookings could slow across the industry.

Residential segment

Residential installers face complex ­foreign entity of concern (FEOC) and domestic content rules, uncertain financing and the loss of the 25D credit. One California installer reported installations down about 30% year to date and sales down 40% to 50%. Some installers are adapting by stopping installation entirely and becoming pure sales organizations that partner with larger platforms for fulfillment.

Financing is the main bottleneck. Many installers have not been able to access third-party ownership (TPO) financing, costs keep rising, and funding remains tight, while FEOC guidance is delayed. Some financing providers have also fallen behind on payments to installers for systems that are already installed. Industry contacts expect more installer bankruptcies, affecting both large and small players. One Washington contact sees an 80% chance that FEOC guidance arrives in Q1 2027, which could ease some of the financing uncertainty.

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