The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM)—the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China—was assessed at $19.227/kg, or $0.040/W, remaining unchanged from the previous week, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on June 9.

Global polysilicon market fundamentals remain broadly stable. However, industry participants interviewed by OPIS during the Shanghai International Photovoltaic Power Generation and Smart Energy Conference & Exhibition (SNEC) last week indicated that future pricing, production strategies and sales trends will likely hinge on the outcome of the U.S.’ Section 232 national security investigation into imports of polysilicon and its derivatives.

According to unofficial industry feedback, the Section 232 investigation findings have already been submitted to the White House, with July 4 now widely viewed by participants as the latest likely date for an announcement.

Substantial pricing disparities persist across supply sources despite relatively stable global polysilicon prices. Market participants said price gaps between long-term contracts for non-Chinese polysilicon from different origins can reach as much as $5/kg, while spot-market differentials can be as wide as $10/kg.

Despite heightened market attention on the Section 232 investigation, some industry participants believe its potential impact may be overstated. One source said the outcome is unlikely to fully block non-U.S. polysilicon from entering the U.S. market and will likely remain within a range producers can absorb.

Another participant argued the more critical issue is whether the outcome can keep Chinese polysilicon that fails traceability requirements out of the U.S. market. If such material retains even limited U.S. pathways, it could still pressure sales opportunities for non-U.S. suppliers, who will likely face some tariff burden themselves.

Meanwhile, after eight weeks of stability, the China Mono Premium—OPIS’ assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production—fell 1.88% week-on-week to CNY 33.429 ($4.86)/kg, or CNY 0.070/W.

Market participants told OPIS at SNEC that Chinese polysilicon producers are increasingly adopting divergent business strategies, as differences in market positioning, financial strength and operating structure push companies toward individual survival strategies rather than coordinated output reductions.

One established producer said its polysilicon facilities are currently operating at around 70% utilization, significantly above the industry average. The company attributed this to strong performance in its core non-polysilicon business, where order visibility extends through 2027-2028, providing financial support for its polysilicon operations.

Another second-tier producer expressed a similar view, noting that diversification into other business segments, combined with a comparatively lighter asset burden than larger integrated peers, has helped sustain its polysilicon business throughout the current market downturn.

Second-tier producers are increasingly offering more competitive pricing in exchange for market share and survival, a strategy that may widen supplier price disparities and add downside pressure.

Larger integrated producers are taking a more cautious approach. One leading producer said it has restarted idled capacity at minimum technical load to capture lower wet-season hydropower costs, with a more visible increase in output expected from August. Even so, the source said the return of supply is already weighing on prices, with SNEC spot discussions heard as low as CNY31-32/kg.

Market participants also told OPIS that Chinese authorities have not fully abandoned efforts to guide consolidation and capacity control in the polysilicon sector.

According to a market participant, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) convened another meeting with polysilicon producers shortly before SNEC, encouraging participants to further explore consolidation mechanisms. However, without a clear and actionable framework, many have become less willing to devote significant resources or attention to the effort.

Nevertheless, some participants believe further price declines may be limited as many producers are already selling below cost. A module producer told OPIS that polysilicon is now only the fourth-largest module cost component, making further declines unlikely to materially improve project economics or revive demand. Instead, the source said additional weakness could undermine market confidence and erode supply-chain value.

On exports, a polysilicon trader noted rising overseas interest in Chinese material because of its current price competitiveness, with inquiries from India and Turkey increasing during SNEC. Participants cautioned, however, that meaningful export growth is unlikely in the near term, as large-scale wafer manufacturing capacity outside China will take time to develop.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.