Weather forecasts point to an extreme heat event affecting much of Western Europe next week, with temperatures nearing 40 C in France, Germany, southern England and the Iberian Peninsula, and isolated peaks of up to 42 C in parts of Spain.

The widespread nature of the heatwave is expected to drive a simultaneous rise in electricity demand across the region, mainly due to increased use of cooling systems. Analysts consulted by Montel News estimate that demand in several markets could rise by around 2 GW above levels seen earlier in the week.

Spain is expected to see particularly strong load growth, with Rodrigo García, partner and operations director at consultancy Optimize Energy, estimating that demand could exceed seasonal norms by up to 6 GW, reaching daily peaks of 37–38 GW.

Across Europe, higher demand is expected to translate into upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices. In Spain, analysts expect spot prices to again exceed €100 ($114.3)/MWh, supported by increased gas-fired generation as combined-cycle plants ramp up to meet peak load. Forward markets already reflect tighter expectations, with weekly contracts trading above €104/MWh compared with recent averages of €93.40/MWh.

In Germany, forecasts point to elevated price volatility, with weak wind output expected to coincide with rising cooling demand. While solar generation is forecast to remain above average during daytime hours, the rapid decline in photovoltaic output in the evening is expected to force a steep ramp-up in thermal generation, contributing to sharp intraday price spikes. Week-ahead contracts are trading around €123.50/MWh, with some day-ahead products approaching €150/MWh.

France could also face additional supply-side constraints. High river temperatures along the Rhône may force temporary reductions in nuclear output to comply with environmental regulations. EDF has warned of possible operational limits at plants including Bugey and Saint-Alban, with analysts estimating potential capacity reductions of 3–4 GW. While strong renewable generation could partially offset these constraints, the situation adds to regional supply uncertainty.

Overall, the combination of high temperatures, correlated demand peaks across countries, and potential generation constraints is expected to tighten European power balances and amplify price volatility throughout the week ahead.