Poland’s Council of Ministers has approved an updated energy and climate strategy outlining an accelerated transformation of the country’s energy system through 2040.

The updated plan, known in Poland as the National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK), will now be submitted to the European Commission for approval. Its adoption also paves the way for the closure of infringement proceedings launched against Poland after it missed the June 30, 2024 deadline for submitting the revised document.

The updated plan projects a significant increase in renewable energy deployment over the next 15 years. Depending on the development scenario, renewables are expected to account for 51.6% to 53.2% of electricity generation by 2030, rising further to 65.6% to 68.9% by 2040.

The government expects onshore and offshore wind power, solar PV, and renewable gases to drive this expansion. While natural gas will continue to play a balancing role during the transition, its importance is expected to gradually decline as decarbonized and renewable gases become available, the government said.

In the heating and cooling sector, the share of renewable energy could reach 31.6% to 36.5% by 2030 and between 43.5% and 56.7% by 2040.

The strategy also forecasts substantial growth in Poland’s installed generating capacity. Total capacity is expected to increase from more than 77 GW in early 2026 to between 128 GW and 156 GW by 2040, depending on the scenario.

Renewable energy capacity alone could reach 84 GW to 92 GW by 2040, thus representing nearly 60% of installed capacity.

Energy affordability is another objective of the plan. By 2040, the share of households spending more than 10% of their income on energy could decline by 30% to 55%, while the proportion of households falling below the social minimum after paying energy bills could decrease by 31% to 55%. In addition, electricity generation costs could fall by around 8% by 2030 and 18% by 2040 compared with 2025 levels, supporting both industrial competitiveness and household consumers, the government stated.

Poland’s cumulative solar capacity reached 24.8 GW by the end of 2025. The country installed 3.6 GW of solar in 2025, according to data collected by Agencja Rynku Energii (ARE) on behalf of the country’s Ministry of Energy.